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Consumers are holding off on buying vehicles until they get the best deals, and when they buy they want small cars.
According to Kelley Blue Book, 62 percent of new- and used-car shoppers are looking to purchase within the next three months, due primarily to year-end sales events.
Many consumers also just can't find what they want right now.
Among surveyed shoppers that have visited a dealership recently, 42 percent noted difficulties finding the specific vehicle they want, followed by a small selection of vehicles (40 percent) and the inability to negotiate an acceptable price (28 percent).
"Consumers seem to know what they want, it is just a matter of finding it in the current marketplace," said Camryn Craig, research analyst for Kelley's kbb.com.
Kelley analysts forecast that consumers will get what they want in the fourth quarter, with increased increased inventory, along with larger cash incentives and attractive lease offerings.
The crisis in Japan knocked a lot of production offline, both there and through the world due to a shortage of parts. That production is getting back to full capacity.
Toyota execs recently said North American production has returned to 100 percent, well ahead of initial expectations.
Another reflection of today's more frugal consumer is increased interest in small cars.
According to Edmunds.com analysis, new-car shoppers in markets around the country are now much more likely to consider a compact or subcompact car than they were last year.
The downside for them is those segments carry lower incentives.
According to Edmunds.com's True Cost of Incentives data, the national average incentive for compact cars in August 2011 was 864, down 63 percent year-over-year from 2,318. Subcompact car incentives averaged 520 per vehicle sold, down 57 percent from 1,211 in August 2010.
The best deals lie in less popular segments, like midrange luxury cars.
Increased new-car sales mean more trades and that means more vehicles coming into the used-car supply chain.
More than a third of consumers plan to trade in their current vehicle at a dealership toward the purchase or lease of another vehicle. Twenty-nine percent plan to sell their vehicle to another person.